UN warns global warming will exceed 1.5°C unless emissions cut sharply

The UN Environment Programme said global warming will breach the 1.5°C limit unless emissions are cut sharply. The report, released on 21 October 2026, calls for a 45% reduction by 2035. It also projects warming of 2.6–2.8°C by century’s end if current policies persist.

UNEP recommends 18% cut by 2029, 45% by 2035, and 69% by 2040 relative to 2025 levels. These cuts would keep peak warming to 1.7–1.8°C by mid‑century. The report notes that the Paris Agreement requires national climate action plans, or NDCs.

UN Secretary‑General António Guterres said overshoot is not surrender. UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen warned that each extra degree raises risks such as floods, heatwaves and wildfires. She added that limiting peak warming is still possible.

The report notes that renewable energy has grown, coal and oil supply has grown slower than projected, and many policies have cut emissions. However, new NDCs submitted since the last report have barely changed the trajectory. The second Global Stocktake will begin at COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, and will aim to set clearer, quantified targets.