UNICEF says 347 million children face El Niño drought and flood risk

More than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories are expected to experience unusually wet or dry conditions between October and December 2026 because of El Niño, according to UNICEF data reported by UN News. The agency said the conditions increase the risk of extreme floods and droughts. The 2026-2027 El Niño is forecast to become one of the strongest on record, UN News reported.

In September, the Niño 3.4 index, a measure of sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific used to track El Niño, surpassed readings recorded during every previous El Niño event, including 1997 and 2015, according to UN News. El Niño conditions have been present since mid-2026 and are forecast to peak between October and December. UN News reported that some climate watchers have dubbed the pattern a "Super El Niño".

In Papua New Guinea, water sources are drying up, crops are failing and food prices are rising months before the worst agricultural impacts are expected, UN News reported. The government declared the event in June, established a dedicated task force and approved a $112 million supplementary budget. About 1.2 million people are estimated to require direct food relief, with water shortages, crop losses, dwindling food reserves and higher prices already reported. The largest impacts on agriculture and food security there are expected from November.

"For children, El Niño is far more than a weather pattern. It can mean increased displacement, malnutrition, water shortages and disease outbreaks," UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said. "Children are also at risk of schools closing, while families could experience added financial hardship."

Across the Greater Horn of Africa, wetter-than-normal conditions could raise the risk of river and flash flooding, increase the spread of waterborne diseases and disrupt schooling, according to UN News. UN News also reported that children living amid conflict and displacement in the wider region, including Yemen, Sudan and Afghanistan, face particularly acute risks.

UN News reported that 1.1 billion children, nearly half of the world's children, are already exposed to at least three overlapping climate-related hazards such as drought, extreme heat or floods. In Papua New Guinea, schools are being disrupted, with concerns reported over health, nutrition and bushfires.