UN report: emissions must fall 18% by 2030 to limit warming
The United Nations Environment Programme says global greenhouse gas emissions need to drop 18% by 2030 to avoid exceeding 1.5°C warming.
Key facts
- UNEP report calls for 18% global emissions cuts by 2030, 45% by 2035, 69% by 2040.
- Current pledges would reduce emissions by only 5‑8% by 2030 and 11‑15% by 2035.
- Global emissions in 2025 were 58.4 GtCO2e, about 0.16 GtCO2e lower than 2024.
- If policies stay unchanged, temperatures could rise 2.8°C above pre‑industrial levels.
- US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and increased coal use are cited as factors worsening the outlook.
The United Nations Environment Programme released its annual Emissions Gap Report on 21 October 2026. The report states that global greenhouse gas emissions must fall 18% by 2030 to keep peak warming below 1.8°C. It also projects 45% cuts by 2035 and 69% by 2040.
Current national pledges would cut emissions by only 5‑8% by 2030 and 11‑15% by 2035, relative to 2025 levels, according to UNEP. This gap is why the report calls the 1.5°C target lost.
Global emissions in 2025 totaled 58.4 GtCO2e, slightly lower than 2024 by 0.16 GtCO2e, but the figure is provisional. The report notes that fossil‑fuel emissions rose 0.4‑1.1% compared to 2024.
If current policies remain unchanged, temperatures could rise 2.8°C above pre‑industrial levels by 2100, the report says. The United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and increased coal use are cited as factors that worsen the outlook.
UN Secretary‑General Antonio Guterres said the world can still keep the overshoot brief and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century. He urged all countries to accelerate cuts.
Context
The report notes that burning fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases that trap heat in the atmosphere. It also says that the Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to 1.5°C, but current pledges fall short.
How outlets headlined it
- DWRising emissions and temperatures: The cost of Trump's climate retreat is now clear
- Euronews'This is possible': Emissions must fall by 18% in next 4 years to limit worst impacts of global warming
- The GuardianWorld must cut emissions by 18% in four years ‘to find our way back’, UN says
- Carbon BriefUNEP: Opportunity has ‘been lost’ to meet 1.5C warming limit without ‘overshoot’
How this was made
Compiled by our AI newsroom from 4 independent outlets, checked by a separate AI editor against the sources. Only claims found in the sources are reported. Spot an error? Every source is linked below.
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