IMF raises global growth forecast to 3.1% and warns resilience could be tested

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3.1%, from 3.0% in its July update, and left its 2027 forecast unchanged at 3.4%, according to its World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday in Bangkok. The IMF and World Bank are holding their annual meetings there this week, with finance ministers and central bankers scheduled to attend. FAZ reported the outlook was presented by the IMF's new chief economist, Silvana Tenreyro.

The IMF warned that the global economy "could soon test the limits of resilience", saying emergency oil stocks are depleted and that high debt levels and deficits in many countries could leave governments with little capacity to shield consumers from a future jump in prices. "Without shoring up supply capacity and replenishing policy buffers, the global economy could soon test the limits of resilience," the fund said, according to the Guardian. IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva urged governments to tighten their belts, saying: "We cannot keep delaying necessary policy action – you have the tools, now have the wisdom to use them."

For Germany, the IMF raised its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3%, more than double the 0.6% it projected in July, and forecast 1.1% growth next year, Der Spiegel reported. Der Spiegel said the fund now matches the German government, which published the same forecasts last week; the German economy ministry attributed the optimism to the economy's surprisingly strong resilience. FAZ reported that German industry is benefiting from the global boom in artificial intelligence and from rearmament, with companies supplying materials and equipment for data centres, while the chemicals industry partly replaces supplies from the Middle East.

The Guardian reported the IMF kept its US growth forecast at 2.3% for this year and revised it up to the same pace for 2027, from 2.2%. It raised its eurozone forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.1%, with 1.2% expected next year, according to Der Spiegel, which cited a strong recovery in Ireland and continued momentum in Spain. The Guardian reported the IMF put UK growth at 1.3% this year, up 0.3 percentage points, but cut its 2027 forecast to 1.2% from 1.3%. Der Spiegel's report also listed 2026 forecasts of 0.4% for France, 0.8% for Italy and 2.5% for Spain.

Der Spiegel reported that the IMF described a "divided" outlook and a "fragmented" world economy, split between industrial countries that benefited from rising investment in artificial intelligence and poorer countries that draw no benefit from the boom. FAZ's headline said the world economy rests on few pillars, and FAZ reported that only 32 economies now account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 in April, with risks outweighing opportunities. FAZ also reported the IMF expects global inflation to rise to 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% in 2027.

The IMF said the rerouting of oil supplies away from the strait of Hormuz and the release of strategic energy stocks had contained the oil price impact of the US-Iran war, according to the Guardian. The International Energy Agency announced the largest-ever emergency releases of oil stocks in March this year, and the Guardian reported the US strategic petroleum reserve had fallen to its lowest level since 1982. FAZ reported that Gulf states redirected exports, other producers raised output by two million barrels a day and inventories supplied another four million barrels, while China cut oil imports by 23% between March and June compared with a year earlier. FAZ said the IMF calculated the oil price shock would cost global growth 0.3 percentage points in 2026, against 0.9 points without those extra supplies and lower oil dependence.