Climate scientists set out five steps to prepare for super El Niño

Researchers led by the University of Bristol have set out five steps to help countries prepare for the coming El Niño and reduce its effects on human health, according to a study published in The Lancet. Phys.org reported the study on 7 October 2026. The researchers said the additional health threats El Niño presents remain largely unquantified.

Study lead author Dr Ruby Lieber, senior research associate in climate science at the University of Bristol, said the number of people affected by climate-related disasters is strongly influenced by the El Niño cycle. She said there is little evidence establishing how much of the health burden can be attributed to climate change and how much was driven by El Niño. She said the current El Niño pushes many regions into more extreme climates, creating a need to measure the different dangers for individual countries and places.

The study recommends five actions to build a full overview of the risks, which the researchers said is key to limiting consequences including the spread of infectious diseases, malnutrition and heat-related conditions such as dehydration and heatstroke. Lieber said the steps will require greater collaboration between climate and health researchers and action from research funders, the World Health Organization, the wider U.N. system, the World Bank and nongovernmental organizations. She said these bodies should use attribution science, research that measures how much of an event's effects come from human-induced climate change, to separate El Niño's impacts from those of climate change.

According to the report, a significant El Niño is likely toward the end of 2026, with some forecasts predicting the strongest event on record. El Niño describes the warming of sea surface temperatures. The researchers said its direct effects will be felt across the globe and may increase extreme weather in India, East Asia, South America, parts of Africa and the western Pacific.

Co-author Dann Mitchell, Shanta professorial chair in planetary health at the University of Bristol, said the threat poses predictable risks to communities around the world. He said climate and health researchers must unite, with backing from national and international agencies, to build a more advanced evidence base. He said this would increase global resilience and put adaptation strategies in place, particularly in countries more acutely exposed.